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   【环球时报综合报道】新型冠状病毒疫情的拐点什么时候会到来?这是眼下正全力抗疫的中国人最关心的问题。国家卫健委5日发布的数据显示,全国新增确诊病例仍保持高位,形势依然严峻。不过外界也从中看到一个好消息:3日和4日两天,新增疑似病例连续下降。从1月23日武汉“封城”至今已两周时间,若这种势头能不断巩固,对正处于关键期的“抗疫战”来说无疑是个鼓舞。聚焦疫情的同时,国际社会也向中国伸出更多援助之手。5日,柬埔寨首相洪森访华,在特殊时期展现了对中国的支持。俄罗斯一架载有人道救援物资的伊尔-76运输机当天抵达武汉,同行的还有医疗防疫专家。此前被舆论质疑不断放话却没有实质行动的美国,4日也将一批援助防疫物资运抵武汉。不过,也有某些西方人士和媒体不那么厚道,再次借机引申,唱衰中国。疫情是全人类的敌人,这时候的“借题发挥”尤其显得丑陋。“面对这场迅速演变的疫情,中国动员了巨大的资源和能力来加以应对,联合国对于这一努力给予完全肯定。”联合国秘书长古特雷斯4日呼吁国际社会在疫情问题上向中国展示团结。
“关键的一周”
5日,中共中央总书记习近平主持召开中央全面依法治国委员会第三次会议。习近平在讲话中强调,当前,疫情防控正处于关键时期,依法科学有序防控至关重要。疫情防控越是到最吃劲的时候,越要坚持依法防控,在法治轨道上统筹推进各项防控工作,保障疫情防控工作顺利开展。
根据国家卫健委5日发布的数据,2月4日0时至24时,31个省(自治区、直辖市)和新疆生产建设兵团报告新增确诊病例3887例(湖北省3156例),新增死亡病例65例(湖北省65例)。新增疑似病例3971例(湖北省1957例)。“德国之声”5日称,湖北省报告新增65例死亡病例,这是近一个月来单日死亡人数最多的一次。目前,全国累计死亡病例490例。
不过,也有不少报道将目光投向“新增疑似病例连续下降”。“中国新型冠状病毒疫情出现拐点?”德国新闻电视台5日称,尽管确诊病例仍持续在高位,但不幸中的幸运是,新增疑似病例连续第二天下降。这说明中国一定程度上控制了疫情蔓延,关键看今后几天的“窗口期”。《纽约时报》称,康复人数上升,这表明治疗方案可能正在发挥作用。4日,中国共有262人出院。疑似病例连续两天下降。中国官员表示正在追踪3971例疑似病例,此前一天新增疑似病例5072例。
在5日的发布会上,国家卫健委新闻发言人宋树立表示,新发疑似病例数字出现了明显减少,这其中一个原因是检测能力的提高,让更多疑似病例成为确诊病例或被排除,让病人有更好、更及时的治疗,被排除的病人可以回归正常生活。此前一天国家卫健委证实,从全国监测情况看,近日发热门诊就诊人次在下降。
对于拐点,专家多持谨慎态度。“香港01”网站5日援引中国工程院副院长王辰的话说,目前小区传播疫情严重且情况并不甚清楚,绝对不能轻视,现在还没有判断疫情传播高峰、拐点的依据。大疫时期最有效的办法,一是控制传染源,二是救治患者。国家卫健委专家组成员蒋荣猛5日表示,后面可能还要出现一个潜伏期,6日是第一个潜伏期,再往后算是20日,目前疑似病人还在增加。耶鲁大学全球健康政策与经济学助理教授、美国中国卫生政策与管理学会会长陈希日前接受《环球时报》记者采访时则表示,根据他与耶鲁大学部分学者的研究,疫情的高峰、拐点可能出现在2月21日。
“本周将是看清疫情走势的关键一周”,美国《时代》周刊称,中国武汉1月23日开始“封城”,试图阻止致命病毒的传播。1月25日,“封城”扩大到16个周边城市。对于了解疫情蔓延程度以及防控努力是否奏效,本周可能是至关重要的。“本周我们应该开始看到防控战略的效果”,香港大学传染病学教授本·考林说,“这是关键的一周”。
关键时期中国更是全力应对。从5日晚开始,武汉市三所“方舱医院”逐步投入使用,用于专门收治确诊的轻症患者。另外,全国各地的20家“方舱医院”正驰援武汉。日本TBS电视台称,这样一来就可以让更多确诊患者得到及时治疗,大大缓解现有武汉各医院床位紧张的问题。相信今后武汉疑似病例人数会变得清晰,并不断朝着减少的方向发展。
世卫再次反对旅行和贸易限制
灾祸面前,更多国家伸出援助之手。5日,柬埔寨首相洪森访华,特殊时刻展现出力挺中国的姿态。(详见本报今日第三版)俄塔社报道称,俄总统普京5日在接受外国大使递交国书仪式上表示,中国在抗击新型冠状病毒疫情方面采取了果断和有力的措施,俄罗斯已做好准备向中国提供援助和各种帮助。据“今日俄罗斯”报道,5日,一架伊尔-76运输机抵达武汉,机上载有包括医疗设备等在内的人道主义救援物资。俄副总理戈利科娃表示,6名俄罗斯专家当天抵达中国,将就疫情与中方进行讨论。俄交通部长5日也出面表示,俄政府不考虑全面停飞往返俄中两国的航班。
当地时间4日晚,美国总统特朗普在国情咨文中表示,美国正在和中国协调,密切合作应对新型冠状病毒疫情。此前,美国官员多次表示愿向中方提供援助,但一直缺乏实质行动。中国外交部发言人华春莹5日证实,来自美方的一批援助防疫物资于4日运抵武汉。华春莹当天还表示,面对疫情,中方始终主要依靠自身力量应对疫情挑战。同时,对于来自国际社会的真诚友善的理解、支持和帮助,我们表示欢迎和感谢。根据目前了解的情况,截至2月5日中午,韩国、日本、泰国、马来西亚等21个国家政府和联合国儿童基金会向中方捐助了疫情防控物资。
5日,中国之外最受关注的疫情事件来自日本。日本厚生劳动省当天表示,对停靠横滨港的“钻石公主”号邮轮内乘客和船员约3700人进行检疫的结果显示,10人被确认呈现新型冠状病毒阳性反应。乘客和船员将在船上接受14天隔离。“德国之声”称,至此日本确诊病例33例,是中国以外感染新型冠状病毒人数最多的国家。德国是欧洲感染人数最多的国家,为12人。
针对疫情情况,世界卫生组织总干事谭德塞4日表示,99%的病例发生在中国,在世界其他地区只有176例,“这并不意味着情况不会变得更加严重,但我们肯定有机会采取行动”。谭德塞批评一些富裕国家没有及时分享新型冠状病毒病例数据。美国有线电视新闻网5日称,世卫组织再次呼吁各国政府不要实施不必要的限制,干扰国际旅行和贸易,“这些限制措施只会增加恐惧和羞辱,无益公众健康”。“国际社会需要向中国展示团结”
然而,有些人只打着自己的算盘。澳大利亚日前追随美国迅速宣布对中国人的入境禁令,引发中国留学生的不满。据美联社报道,澳总理莫里森5日辩解称,他不同意中国大使馆就入境禁令的抱怨以及有关赔偿中国游客的想法,澳大利亚“国家利益”必须放在首位。
路透社报道称,英国外交部4日呼吁英国公民尽可能离开中国。对此,华春莹5日表示,中国政府始终高度重视所有中外人员的生命安全和身体健康,采取了最严格、最全面的防控措施,远超世卫组织建议和《国际卫生条例》要求。世卫组织明确表示,新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎疫情并非“全球流行病”。希望各方冷静、理性、客观地看待疫情及中方防控工作,尊重世卫组织专业权威建议,不要过度反应。
有些西方评论人士和媒体尤其露骨,在中国人抗击疫情之际借题发挥,唱衰中国。《华盛顿邮报》5日一篇评论上升到“中国模式”的高度,称冠状病毒疫情显示了“中国模式的脆弱性”。《纽约时报》4日的文章则将问题扩大化,称冠状病毒危机显示“中国治理失败”。
将问题无限拔高、放大一向是某些西方人士擅长的伎俩。在中国全力阻击疫情时,这种“手法”显得尤其令人不齿。事实上,正如世卫组织所说,中国为防止疫情向外蔓延付出了巨大努力,应该得到世界的感谢与尊敬。“在新型冠状病毒疫情问题上,国际社会需要向中国展示团结。”联合国网站称,联合国秘书长古特雷斯4日呼吁,在新型冠状病毒疫情问题上,国际社会要有一种强烈的团结感,在目前困难的情况下,对中国以及其他可能受到疫情影响的国家表达强烈的支持和关注。
【环球时报赴武汉特派记者 樊巍 杨诚 崔萌 环球时报驻外特约记者 李珍 青木 魏辉 柳玉鹏】
[Global Times comprehensive report] when will the turning point of the new coronavirus epidemic come? This is the most concerned issue of the Chinese people who are fighting the epidemic. According to data released by the national health and Health Commission on May 5, the newly confirmed cases in China remain at a high level and the situation is still grim. However, the outside world also saw a good news: on the 3rd and 4th, the number of new suspected cases dropped continuously. It has been two weeks since the "closure" of Wuhan on January 23. If this momentum can be continuously consolidated, it will undoubtedly be an inspiration for the "anti epidemic war" which is in a critical period. While focusing on the epidemic, the international community has extended more assistance to China. On May 5, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen visited China and showed his support for China in a special period. A Russian Il-76 transport plane carrying humanitarian aid arrived in Wuhan on the same day, accompanied by medical and epidemic prevention experts. The United States, which has been questioned by public opinion but has no substantive action, also delivered a batch of AIDS and anti epidemic materials to Wuhan on April 4. However, some western people and the media are not so kind and take the opportunity to extend again and sing down China. The epidemic situation is the enemy of all mankind. At this time, it is particularly ugly to make use of it. "In the face of this rapidly evolving epidemic, China has mobilized enormous resources and capabilities to deal with it, and the United Nations fully recognizes this effort." U.N. Secretary General Guterres called on the international community to show solidarity with China on the epidemic Thursday.
"A critical week"
On the 5 day, Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, chaired the third meeting of the Central Committee of administering the country according to law. In his speech, Xi Jinping stressed that at present, epidemic prevention and control is at a critical stage, and scientific and orderly prevention and control is of vital importance. The more arduous the epidemic prevention and control is, the more we must adhere to the prevention and control in accordance with the law, promote the prevention and control work in a coordinated manner on the track of the rule of law, and ensure the smooth development of the epidemic prevention and control work.
From 0:00 to 24:00 on February 4, 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the central government) and Xinjiang production and Construction Corps reported 3887 new confirmed cases (3156 cases in Hubei Province) and 65 new deaths (65 cases in Hubei Province), according to data released by the national health and Health Commission on February 5. 3971 new suspected cases (1957 cases in Hubei Province). Hubei Province has reported 65 new deaths, the largest in a single day in nearly a month, Deutsche Welle said Friday. At present, there are 490 deaths in China.
However, there are many reports that focus on "continuous decline of new suspected cases". "Turning point of new coronavirus epidemic in China?" German news television said Friday that although the number of confirmed cases remained high, unfortunately, the number of new suspected cases fell for the second day in a row. This shows that China has controlled the spread of the epidemic to some extent, and the key is the "window period" in the next few days. According to the New York Times, the number of people recovering has increased, suggesting that treatment options may be working. A total of 262 people were discharged from hospital Thursday. Suspected cases dropped for two consecutive days. Chinese officials say they are tracking 3971 suspected cases, after a day of 5072 new cases.
At a press conference on May 5, Song Zhi, spokesman of the national health and Health Commission, said that the number of new suspected cases has decreased significantly. One of the reasons is the improvement of detection ability, which enables more suspected cases to become confirmed cases or be excluded, so that patients can have better and more timely treatment, and the excluded patients can return to normal life. One day earlier, the national health and health commission confirmed that the number of fever outpatients was decreasing in recent days according to the national monitoring.
Experts are more cautious about turning points. "Hong Kong 01" website quoted Wang Chen, vice president of the Chinese Academy of engineering, as saying Friday that at present, the epidemic situation in the community is serious and unclear, which should not be underestimated. There is no basis for judging the peak and inflection point of the epidemic. The most effective way during the great epidemic period is to control the source of infection and to treat the patients. Jiang rongmeng, a member of the expert group of the national health and Health Commission, said Friday that there may be another incubation period in the future, the first one on the 6th and the next 20. At present, the number of suspected patients is still increasing. Chen Xi, an assistant professor of global health policy and economics at Yale University and President of the Chinese Society for health policy and management, told the Global Times recently that according to his research with some scholars at Yale University, the peak and turning point of the epidemic may appear on February 21.
"This week will be a critical week to see the trend of the epidemic," time said, saying that Wuhan, China, began to "close the city" on January 23, in an attempt to stop the spread of the deadly virus. On January 25, "Fengcheng" expanded to 16 surrounding cities. This week may be crucial to understand the extent of the epidemic and whether prevention and control efforts have worked. "This week we should start to see the effectiveness of prevention and control strategies," said Ben Colin, Professor of infectious diseases at the University of Hong Kong. "This is a critical week.".
In the critical period, China has made every effort to deal with it. From the evening of the 5th, three "shelter hospitals" in Wuhan were gradually put into use for the treatment of patients with mild diseases. In addition, 20 "shelter hospitals" across the country are rushing to help Wuhan. Japan"s TBS television said that in this way, more confirmed patients can be treated in time, greatly easing the tension of beds in existing hospitals in Wuhan. It is believed that in the future, the number of suspected cases in Wuhan will become clear and will continue to decrease.
Who again opposes travel and trade restrictions
In the face of disasters, more countries have reached out to help. On May 5, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen paid a special visit to China